Renewable energy was winning so much that Big Oil needed Trump to use the full power of the government to try and stop it. Which they won’t.
Yes, the US government dealt a blow to the growth of renewables, but when you dig into it, it is a clear sign they are losing the economic and cultural argument on the reality of climate change
One of the biggest climate related stories of the last month has been Trump’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill’s struggle to get passed through the US House and Senate. (Arguably the biggest is the tragic floods in Texas which have the fingerprints of both climate change and government inaction all over them.) The so-called One Big Beautiful Bill is climate news because it guts vast parts of the previous administrations support for climate action via renewable energy and a host of other programs including Electric Vehicles (EVs). But it does not just end support for renewables. It goes much further. What jumped out at me is that we have clearly arrived at the point where they need to actively squash renewable energy. It is such an effective means of generating energy that it poses a threat to the ongoing business-as-usual use of fossil fuels. The fossil fuel industry and its pet politicians are losing ground to the potency of renewables such that they have to not just cut support for them, but also are using the power of the state to try and squash progress.
(Image - The growth of renewables is a global story. It continues despite the actions of Trump. Renewable energy via wind power in Wales, UK. Photo by author.)
They won’t win.
It made me think of the famous quote, often misattributed to Gandhi;
“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” We are at the ‘fight you’ stage. Once we win this fight, we’re at the ‘we win’ stage.
Taking a step back, our understanding of the existence of climate change is not new. The first time that an increase in global temperatures is predicted from the emission of CO2 was back in 1896. This begins the ‘ignore’ period as the science advances - accelerating from the 1960s onwards to no great political impact beyond that. Then around the 2000s we enter the ‘they laugh at you’ phase when the science of climate change becomes settled; in that it is real, it is happening, it is serious and we are causing it. Then began a deluge of Big Oil funded disinformation that aims to belittle, confuse and distract. Sadly it is quite an effective campaign that turns climate change into a culture war issue. They create a media landscape in which we don’t debate the solutions, but one where we have to debate its very existence. Over and over and over. Common tropes of this period include the lies that renewables can’t possibly work at scale, that scientists used to think there would be global cooling now its global warming - can’t they just make their mind up, that its a scam to get the research funding and that is a hoax for [insert favourite conspiracy theory here].
Yet physics does not care about our culture war battles and the impacts of climate change and the deluge of science backing the theory, just grew and grew. Thus we moved into the ‘fight phase’. What I would hope we can take away from this is that we do have a huge amount of power here. Which is why the fossil fuel lobby goes to such extraordinary lengths to shut us down. Most people want action and are even willing to pay for it to be fixed. (Yet it is clear that taxing the mega-rich is a much more equitable way to fund the transition). What is also clear is that the idea that dealing with climate change is just a ‘cost’ is a lie. The costs of climate chaos are, and will continue to be, much more expensive in both lives and money, than pretending it is not happening. Not only that, renewables are not only a better technology that promotes energy independence, but they outcompete fossil fuels when on a level playing field. Hence the actions of the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill - which not just removes any financial incentives but actively hinders the development of renewables.
Climate change always was all of our problem, except that for a while some politicians and Big Oil could pretend it was not happening. Sadly, as the impacts of a warming world continue to grow (Texas flooding, European heatwaves, California wildfires and so on) such that what we will see is the ongoing costs of climate change on all our doorstep. Our job now is:
So point to the evidence linking such disasters and human-caused climate change.
Point to the huge benefits (cost, energy independence, reduction of CO2 emissions) of renewables and energy efficiency projects.
Point to the escalating costs of failing to deal with climate change.
Climate scientist Dr. Kate Marvel has a new book out that also covers a lot of this. She posted a great summary of where we are:
might help:
1 calling your reps
2 organizing your community
3 joining a local direct-action group
4 attending protests
5 volunteering
6 canvassing
won't help:
7 yelling that we're doomed
8 bragging about how cynical you've always been
9 sneering at people doing 1-6
I’m 100% behind this sentiment and it echoes a lot of what we cover here. Digging into points 1,5 and 6 - political action - and the recent actions (and inactions) of the Trump presidency, it shows really clearly that all political parties are not the same. That anyone arguing that the Democrats and Republicans are two sides of the same coin - is either woefully mistaken or trying to misinform you. (Or is indulging in point 8, above.) To underline; the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill is deliberately restricting renewable energy while actively promoting fossil fuels. Even a milquetoast centrist party both acknowledges the reality of climate change and mostly lets the market decide on energy (which, when they do, we’ll win).
(Image - Renewable energy of the south coast of the UK, via a line of wind turbines in the sea. Image by author.)
As such we need to ‘run into the fight’. The facts are on our side, the majority of the population is on our side, young people really care about the issue, and victory conditions mean that every fraction of a degree of warming we stop, matters. (On this point, Wired has a great guide to winning a fight) We have to persuade people of the fact that the economics are now on the side of climate action.
This is a great laying-out of that call to action by Ayana Elizabeth Johnson - So, what now? Harness your rage and heartbreak …
Sadly millions of US voters sat out the 2024 election. Many of whom care about the climate. We need to get them back into the fight. We need where you live, to be in the fight!
News Updates
US Focus - California - a major state on the global stage is posting impressive wins on renewable energy despite the Tump administrations actions
UK Focus - We have a left-of-center government and while not perfect, is doing some great things. My worry is the ‘mini-Trump’ of Farage takes power next because of the same apathy that hit the Biden-Harris campaign. All political parties are not the same.
EU Focus - Denmark’s renewables are ‘off the chart’! While Ireland has moved to be the 5th nation to stop using coal.
China Focus - China hits 1TW renewable capacity milestone and interestingly, in Fusion research, “China isn’t just a supplier in the fusion race, but also an ambitious tech actor.” Something to watch.
Australia is showing how to do a household energy revolution via solar!
It is not just Australia, but Germany too is seeing a home-revolution in renewable energy.
Cutting Edge News
Yet another fusion breakthrough - this time around the modelling of plasma. On that topic, this is a great summary of the state of fusion.
AI might help in the fight against climate chaos? Like any technology, the issues are in how we actually use it. This is some interesting research saying that if we regulate AI and take care how it is powered, then focusing it right, means it, “could cut global climate pollution by up to 5.4 billion metric tons a year over the next decade if it’s harnessed in ways that would improve transportation, energy and food production.”
Another AI story on a start-up aiming to use AI to more efficiently power the grid and so save vast amounts of energy.
Pretty mind-blowing - Trees that make CO2 into stone. Very early stage but this has huge potential.
Doom-watch (where we focus on tackling Doomerism)
As note again that Dr. Kate Marvel has a new book out that also covers how to have hope in the face of waves of bad climate news.
Check out ‘From Doom to Hope with special guest Katharine Hayhoe’
Thanks all!
PS. Please note that this project now has an action page. Do check it out for things you can do.
PPS. Also this newsletter is both a personal project and represents my personal views and not that of any organisation or company. Comments and feedback are always welcomed!