Humanity Crosses a Potent Climate Threshold;5 Reasons as why it matters so much that the largest manufacturing country in the world saw its CO2 emissions -drop- yes drop despite energy demand going up

Eyes on the prize people! Because the decoupling of human economic activity from CO2 emissions means there are many more paths to slowing then stopping climate chaos available to us

With the ongoing slew of terrible news all last month and into this month, you may have missed a rather significant development for every single person alive today and to generations yet unborn: For the first time in history, the largest manufacturing country in the world, which also happens to be the second most populous country in the world and the third biggest consumer market in the world - China - saw its CO2 emissions drop despite its energy demanding going up. This story comes from an analysis by Carbon Brief;

The new analysis for Carbon Brief shows that China’s emissions were down 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 and by 1% in the latest 12 months. Electricity supply from new wind, solar and nuclear capacity was enough to cut coal-power output even as demand surged, whereas previous falls were due to weak growth.

Humanity is now at the point where we so clearly have the technology and its implementation that our need for power, no longer needs to power the destruction of a livable climate for all.

(Image - wind power in Belgium. Belgium is ranked sixth worldwide in offshore wind capacity!)

Does this mean the battle is won? Far from it. There is a lot, and I mean a lot, of work yet to be done. This drop in emissions may not hold in China. We're seeing in the US how a change in government can still progress. But, make no mistake, this is a turning point. Here’s how the graph looks:

(Image China’s CO2 from 2016 to 2025. Source, Carbon Brief)

Why does this matter so much?

1. That drop in CO2 was powered by clean power. This, anyone making the argument that we have to use fossil fuels else the economy tanks, is talking rubbish. Our economies can grow while power demand falls even in the very largest of economics. There is no reason but our own political limitations, why this can’t happen everywhere. It just now needs the political will. (And yes, we can also imagine and explore other ways of being - the point is it is now just down to us!)

2. It is China doing this. This matters for a couple of reasons. As a climate advocate, for a couple of decades now, one of the arguments people in the West deployed against taking action at home was that it didn't matter because 'China'. In essence, the argument went, why should we be bothered to act when the largest manufacturing base in the world would wipe out any gains we made? That becomes an impossible argument to make when CO2 emissions are dropping in China. It is also of note that up until around 2012, China tended to view climate change as a ‘Western-created hoax’ designed to hold back its economic growth. Then it saw reality and went for it.

3. It could be so much more! The CO2 reductions were impressive, but could have even more so by looking to drop emissions in other areas. If you check this graph, you'll see how much the drop in energy CO2 was - and how the potency of this drop was lost a bit from other areas. Now think what that would be like if all areas focused on dropping CO2?

(Image - First quarter 2025 CO2 use by section in China. Source, Carbon Brief)

That 15.4 million tonnes of CO2 for the metallurgy industry, for example; What might that have com down to with a focus on low CO2 production? Same question for the chemicals industry and the heating systems industry. We can also be asking the question of what kinds of economics we might want and what values they should reward? The point is that there are much more gains in the system. That’s exciting!

4. It was clean energy doing this. I’ve argued here before how the potency of clear energy is an underreported story. The growth of this technology in China is an interesting story. But it is one that is mirrored in country after country. It is happening where the government is supporting it much more than where it is not, but make no mistake - it is happening all around the world because the economics are so good. Take the UK as an example; “Increasing numbers of solar farms are going ahead without any contractual support from the Government and some of them are based on cooperative or community support.” As well as solar, there is huge potential for more wind in the UK too! But we could also be discussing geothermal in Kenya or solar manufacturing in the middle east and North Africa. There is so much going on globally here!

(Image - a barn with solar panels on the roof)

5. This change is the harbinger of the end of the age of oil. In fact we’ve already passed the peak of oil production - around seven years ago, “In fact, world peak oil output has already happened in November 2018, clocking in at 85.5 million barrels pumped daily.” This is also why (in pert) 90% of the new energy capacity being added globally in 2024 was via renewables, these trends are impossible to stop, only slow. When you chart these two trends on a graph, this is what you get:

(Image - Global energy % by energy type. Source is here.)

A Note on Action & Hope

So what is needed, as ever, is action. Here I endorse Arnie’s words;

“I know that the people are sick and tired of the whining and the complaining and the doom and gloom,” Schwarzenegger said. “The only way we win the people’s hearts and minds is by showing them action that makes their lives better.”

We don’t win by giving up. We don’t win by spending our limited energy complaining. We don’t win by focusing on the ‘purest’ yet unachievable solutions. To paraphrase Michael Podhorzer - who notes that ‘democracy is not a spectator sport’; neither is the battle against climate chaos. We win by actions that work. We have tons and tons of examples, technologies and ideas for this. We need concerted work over multiple fronts to get the change we want and need. On this I wanted to share a couple of things:

If you are in the US, there are two major points of positive action; one is to halt the damaging mega-bill working its way through the legislative process. Distilled has been covering this from the climate angle:

All of that’s to say there’s hope. Any of these Senators can demand revisions to the bill. They can vote to block it outright. Just a few holdouts could tank the legislation. For anyone that wants to protect our climate future, that’s an opportunity.

Simon Rosenberg takes this on from the political action end of things (scroll to the bottom of the post for this quote and action)

Job One for us this summer is fighting Trump’s ruinous economic agenda. We need to keep calling every day and demand our leaders vote down the reconciliation bill and roll back Trump’s terrible tariffs. This is the big, definitional battle of the summer and we need keep working it every day.

And another climate author here, Ayana Elizathen Johnson, issued this call to action:

Hey Everyone. I just wrote to you yesterday, but this is very important:

This Saturday, June 14th.

This weekend we protest against the Trump administration and for democracy and decency (and good climate policy!). Massive turnout is critical.

If you are in the UK, we have our own political work to do. There is an insurgent Trumpist party, Reform, that is playing all the classic authoritarian dog-whistle politics and also wants to roll back any progress on climate. Helpfully here we get to make the moral and economic argument. We have to persuade people of the fact that the economics are now on the side of climate action;

To take just one example, the net zero industry (that Farage wants to dismantle) is growing at three times the rate of the rest of the economy. Our fossil fuel reserves are dwindling, and being exposed to energy imports that can be switched-off by mad dictators is never a good idea – as the last few years have demonstrated.

So to action as it is rather for us to be, here dedicated to the great task remaining before us, the slowing then halting of climate chaos.

Let’s do it.

PS. Please note that this project now has an action page. Do check it out for things you can do.

PPS. Also this newsletter is both a personal project and represents my personal views and not that of any organisation or company. Comments and feedback are always welcomed!