Positive Climate Trends to Look Towards in 2025

Here's a few things I've got my eye on in 2025 to see how they develop: fusion, funding, peak carbon and climate litigation.

As we approach 2025 there are (sadly, as ever) lots of worrying news on climate. While this is the case and it is all well documented elsewhere, for this newsletter I want to focus on a few areas that are both interesting and positive.

Fusion

Fusion is the way stars produce energy, so we’re kinda benefiting from it via solar already. However if we’re able to use similar physics here on earth, it's going to be a game changer. It will not only upend energy policy, it will upend global politics too as the oil-producing nations of the Earth will quickly lose a lot of relevance. So how close are we? The joke within the scientific community has always been that we’re always 20 years away from the technology working, and we have been for almost 70 years now. However in recent years we have seen a steady beat of breakthroughs in the science and engineering of fusion that gives real hope for this technology. Indeed, we’ve had the announcement that the first ever commercial fusion power plant is now going to be built (in the US) and will come online sometime ‘in the early 2030s’ (so kinda-less than 20 years?!) This project is mostly funded by private investment, so somewhat clear of the changes in political winds. But fusion advances are not limited to the US; it is happening all over. Where I am in the UK there’s an exciting joint project by the Science and Technology Facilities Council’s (STFC) Hartree Centre, IT company IBM and the UKAEA (United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, the national body tasked with R&D and delivering fusion energy) to design and simulate a experimental fusion plant. Other major backers of the technology include the EU and China plus there’s over $7 billion in private cash already going into the sector. As the CEO of the Fusion Industry Association says;

Over the last decades, fusion scientists have made significant increases in their understanding of plasma physics and design of fusion and then bringing in these other advances in other technology fields, whether it’s high-speed computing or artificial intelligence or new materials such as high-temperature super-conducting wires or new advance optics. All these things allow you to take this scientific understanding and put it into a context that is more commercially relevant. So, we’re now at the point where fusion scientists almost universally around the world agree that the next machine they build will be a break-even machine, which gets to that break-even point of making more energy out than goes in.

(Image, maintainance of a fusion vesssel by Rswilcox)

Steps Towards Peak Carbon
At some point soon, if trends continue, we’re going to hit peak carbon usage. From there the usage will go down and down. Is this fast enough? No. Should we move faster? Yes. However the trend is there and has momentum. There’s a few indicators of where this is happening that we can see now:

• This trend is a global phenomena - in Africa, Kenya is now the leading renewable champion going from 60% of its energy coming from fossil fuels in 2000 to just 6% today! But we’re seeing amazing developments all over the globe: so yeah, China and the US but also Spain, Brazil and India - plus a few other places you might not expect to see!

• 2024 was the first year that the UK generated more energy from renewables than from fossil fuels. Plus the UK switched off its last coal-fired power plant in 2024 and has plans to eliminate all carbon from the energy mix by 2030.

• The rapid switch from petrol cars to EVs in China has seen a demand drop which we expect to manifest in the stats in 2025.

Renewables continue to grow in potency while dropping in cost meaning it is increasingly the best option to either add power capacity or replace aging fossil fuel infrastructure.

(Image source)

The Continued Investments in Climate

Is it as good as it could be? No. But there is more than a meaningful wedge of cash going into the sector. Climate investment newsletter, CTCV, noted that since 2021 there are $164 billion in assets under-management in the climate sector. Plus there is $86 billion in ‘dry power’ as in funds ready to find the right project. Climate and renewables is increasingly not only a positive use for funds but a profitable one too. As we see continued innovation in a range of climate areas, we’ll hopefully see these funds pouring into them to drive them forwards.

Climate Legal Cases

Over the last decade or so there have been a number of legal cases ongoing that focus (in one way or another) on the government's failure to address climate change and/or the fossil fuel industry's culpability in the global situation. In 2024 this litigation was on the rise (as well as a smaller but notable legal backlash the other way) so that there are 55 nations in 2024 with ongoing climate litigation. A recent report on this concluded, among other things, “Some types of cases, such as government framework cases, have already had lasting impacts on domestic climate governance.”

Ok so what can you (or I) do in 2025 to help? In a previous post I noted, for renewables:

• Make sure your own supplier of energy is getting it from renewable sources. (UK link)

• If you have influence at work, ask about if your work place can also switch energy suppliers.

• If you have investments/pensions and can control where they invest, seek to move from any fossil fuel ones to renewable energy.

• If there is a renewable energy project seeking planning permission in your area, write in support of it.

• If there is any election - local or national - can you help elect better people?

Plus I’d add:

• Join a climate action group. There’s loads around and this does not have to mean protest - any group always needs a core of people to help from admin, funding, logistics and more. Being part of something is one of the best ways to stave of despair.

• Support an independent media outlet. One of the issues why we hit headwinds in climate progress despite a majority of people wanting to see action is that we face a huge, well-funded climate denial media network. However there are individuals and outlets doing good reporting, investigations and more. These always need support, so find one you like and subscribe!

All in all, I’m going to be watching these areas in 2025 and hoping to see the continued steady progress.

Thanks, have a great Christmas break and see you in 2025!

(Image source)

Other Positive News

• Permian Basin methane emissions drop

• Biden approves 11th large-scale offshore wind project

• Tokamak Energy’s fusion facility to get game-changer upgrade as US, UK join hands

• Seven quiet breakthroughs for climate and nature in 2024 you might have missed
  

  
  PS. A note on format here, where you see text in italics, I’m quoting directly from the source. Below each image (in brackets) is the source for that image. Thanks.