Could 2024 be the year that CO2 emissions actually drop? I think it might be!
There's a lot of worrying climate news around, but under the news-surface there is positive movements going on!
So no doubt you’ve seen the worrying news about the recorded 1.5 degree rise in global temperatures (though we’ve not yet broken the Paris accords) and the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean tipping point. Both are a worry, yes.
But we’re not there yet and, as I have posted before,victory is not binary - every fraction of a degree matters.
So with this backdrop, why do I think that 2024 be the year that CO2 emissions actually drop?
The rapid installation of renewable energy that has been going on worldwide is at an unprecedented pace and driven as much by the economics of how much more cost-effective wind and solar are, as worries of climate chaos (covered here). As more and more of this capacity comes online, it is starting to impact CO2 emissions, but the impact on emissions is always going to be behind the switch-on of that new capacity.
Some of the major CO2 emitting blocks of the world are not only hitting targets, but hitting them faster than planned! China has:
China’s Carbon Emissions Are Set to Decline Years Earlier Than Expected - China’s rollout of 300 gigawatts of new wind and solar power last year was for the first time enough to cover its new electricity demand
The US and EU are also dropping and projected to continue to drop into 2026!
(Credit/Source: here & on image)
While we’re on the subject of the EU; In a ‘monumental shift’, EU coal and gas collapse as wind and solar ascend.
While we’re on the subject of a shift to renewables; Brazil Hits 92% Renewable Energy Milestone!
So you can see why there is cause for some optimism that the peak might be this year. This graph shows the preParis baseline scenario (red) and the IEA numbers/projections (green). You can see the temporary drop during the Pandemic around 2020, then the rise again back to ‘normal’ but then it starts to drop off.
Other News
A few other positive stories that also caught my eye:
In the South West of England (where I live!) there are plans to recreate lost temperate rainforests!
From the Guardian: “Joe Biden just did the rarest thing in US politics: he stood up to the oil industry”
The truth wins out! “Famed climate scientist wins million-dollar verdict against right-wing bloggers”
This is a great watch - TED talk on why the most effective climate solutions are also the cheapest! Spread far and wide!
Thank you all!
PS. Let us continue to turn hope into action!